American Economic Output and Institutional Policy
Tracking the core structural shifts in US federal policy, global trade positions, and domestic demographic momentum. We provide primary data analysis independent of partisan narratives.
Core Research Areas
The Structural Trade Deficit
An analysis of US reliance on imported manufactured goods versus exported services and intellectual property. Includes 20-year trend data and sector breakdowns.
Read analysisInfrastructure Capital Allocation
Where federal dollars are actually flowing versus where they were legislated to go. Examining the IIJA and domestic semiconductor subsidies.
Read analysisPrime-Age Labor Participation
Beyond the headline unemployment rate: examining the long-term decline in male prime-age labor force participation and its macroeconomic drag.
Read analysisInteractive Policy Tools
We build functional models to help researchers, journalists, and citizens verify the math behind political claims. All tools run entirely in your browser with fully disclosed assumptions.
View All 15+ ToolsInstitutional Focus: The Housing Market
The American housing market has decoupled from local median incomes, driven by a decade of underbuilding and acute rate lock-in.
We track the divergence between shelter inflation as measured by the BLS and real-time asking rents from private aggregators.
Read the Housing Report| Metro Area | Median Home Price (2023) | Income Required | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose, CA | $1,850,000 | $425,000 | +5.2% |
| Austin, TX | $450,000 | $115,000 | -8.4% |
| Miami, FL | $600,000 | $140,000 | +11.1% |
| Columbus, OH | $315,000 | $82,000 | +6.8% |
Source: NAR Quarterly Metropolitan Median Area Prices. Assumes 20% down, 30-year fixed at 6.8%.
Recent Executive & Legislative Actions
EXECUTIVE ORDER 14110
Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy AI
Establishes new standards for AI safety and security, aiming to protect Americans' privacy and advance equity. Imposes reporting requirements on foundation models.
PUBLIC LAW 117-169
Inflation Reduction Act: Energy Credits
Analysis of the uncapped tax credits for domestic clean energy manufacturing. Early estimates projected $391B; revised estimates now exceed $1.2T over 10 years.
SUPREME COURT
Loper Bright & The End of Chevron
The overturning of Chevron deference fundamentally shifts power from federal administrative agencies back to the judiciary when interpreting ambiguous statutes.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Quantitative Tightening Pace
The FOMC's ongoing balance sheet runoff has drained over $1.5 trillion in liquidity since 2022. We track the reserve balances and reverse repo facility usage.
Research Methodology
We strictly utilize primary source data (BLS, BEA, CBO, Federal Reserve, IRS) and explicitly state all assumptions in our models. No AI-generated analysis, no partisan framing.
Read Our StandardsFederal Reserve Balance Sheet Tracker
The FOMC continues its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt.
Since the peak in April 2022 at nearly $9 trillion, the Federal Reserve has shed over $1.5 trillion from its balance sheet. We track the pace of this runoff and its implications for overnight lending rates and overall banking system liquidity.
Current Runoff Pace
Treasuries: Up to $60 billion per month.
MBS: Up to $35 billion per month.
Demographic Shifts & Labor Dynamics
The Missing Prime-Age Worker
Headline unemployment remains near historic lows, but the labor force participation rate for prime-age men (25-54) has been on a long-term downward trajectory since the 1960s.
| Decade | Male (25-54) Participation |
|---|---|
| 1960s | ~97.0% |
| 1980s | ~94.5% |
| 2000s | ~91.0% |
| 2020s | ~89.0% |
The Entitlement Math
As the baby boomer generation retires en masse, the ratio of covered workers to Social Security beneficiaries is collapsing.
- 1950 Ratio 16.5 workers per retiree
- 2023 Ratio 2.8 workers per retiree
Congressional Action Tracker
We monitor significant legislation passing through the House and Senate, filtering out messaging bills to focus on structural fiscal impacts.
RECENT ANALYSIS
The SAVE Plan & Administrative Rulemaking
An examination of how the Department of Education used administrative rulemaking to enact sweeping student loan payment reductions following the Supreme Court's striking down of blanket forgiveness.
Read the policy breakdown →Data Integrity & Primary Sources
Institute for America relies strictly on unadjusted primary data from federal bureaus. We do not use third-party seasonal adjustments or private modeling without explicit disclosure.
Our mandate is mathematical reality over political expediency. When the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revises a 10-year outlay projection by $500 billion, we update our interactive models accordingly.
View Our Full MethodologyThe Primary Brief
Join 15,000+ researchers, journalists, and citizens who receive our raw data breakdowns of major federal actions. No spin, just the math.
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